Impact of Recession on Offshore Based IT Services Companies

I wrote some time back on "Wall Street Meltdown & Offshore IT Players". In the past months the meltdown has crossed over to the oft quoted Main Street and now is on Hosur Road, Whitefield and OMR in India.

The global recession which was being discussed in whispers and "what ifs" is now full blown in terms of acceptance. However the extent of its impact is yet to be known. With the domino effect it has been having this time across various industries ( I was reading last week that in the previous quarter Volvo reported new orders for just under 150 new trucks globally, against a number close to 15000 in the same quarter last year). Unlike the last one, this recession is not limited to or greater in impact to the technology companies alone. In this one it seems that the technology companies will feel the heat as opportunities from various industries they connect with, get impacted. So, the impact is more widespread, it has shaken the fundamentals of economy and business in many countries and has now crept to impact everyone with the government bailouts, mortgages and job losses.

So, what does it mean in terms of its impact to the offshore based IT companies in particular. Here is my take:

1. The worst is yet to come. What we are seeing now are steadier revenues from business signed few quarters back. Since a large part of the engagements are relatively longer in terms of contract, the real effect of the slowdown will show when the deals that were to be signed now and in future will result in loss of work in the coming few quarters. Some of the short term project work has of course taken a hit and the impact is clear with the layoffs being seein now even in the Tier 1 offshore based IT services companies.
2. The impact, once in its full by mid of next year, will be the worst that the industry has seen. The positive fall out is that it will make these companies re-think on their "hire more people for more revenue paradigm". All are now sitting on a big employee base with labor cost (salaries) being their largest part of their operating cost which is bound to reduced.Another development that will soon set in is that some new offshoring contracts will get signed in the next 2-3 quarters. These will be related to outsourcing/offshoring those work which the client operations teams could hold off due to fear of losing their own jobs, losing control to an offshore team, due to risks in security which could be now be re-assessed with a higher risk taking ability in the interest to keep the work going. Next quarter we should see traction from mid-sized companies which would want to decide very fast for IT services in general. It is also possible that in case the enterprises have an incumbent, they have already called them and asked for a flat 10%-15% discount due to the business climate. Increasingly this is not unusual and an RFI/RFP issue only adds to the thread in case some large onshore based vendors are not willing to budge.
3. By next year, almost all would have asked employees to take a pay cut. The focus would also be to create products, upgrade competency and even pursue mid-sized deals (either smaller contracts with large companies but more likely, larger end to end contracts with smaller companies).
4. Not restricting to offshore vendors, but in general too, this recession will really move up the bars for risk/reward system in contracts. Companies will find innovative ways to structure contracts with contained risks for service providers partially but a big thrust on sharing their fate with the payout with service providers. In absence of much action elsewhere, offshore based vendors are more likely to jump for such deals since their cost base are still relativevly smaller than the larger onshore based companies.
5. Offshore based providers, again not restricting to them, but they in a big way will start scaling up their sales efforts in non-US markets. Moving sales staff from US to South America, Europe, South Africa and APAC will be a big focus.
6. When it ends, it will bring the offshore providers back with the labor arbitrage that they were fast losing. It may not put in them in the position they were at the beginning of the century but the frenzy would give way to some more sensible selective pay hikes and not those blanket ones. The attrition (staff turnover) due to volunteered resignations has dramatically reduced though larger number of employees are leaving as they are being asked to.